Longtermists Are Pushing a New Cold War With China
Motivated by fears of the existential risks posed by advanced AI falling into the hands of authoritarian regimes, longtermists have for years been quietly pressing the White House to pursue a more aggressive policy toward China.

President Joe Biden meeting with business leaders at the White House on March 9, 2022. (Doug Mills / the New York Times via Getty Images)
The philosophy of “longtermism” is having a moment. Once a fringe ideology among Silicon Valley’s doomsayers, it has come to receive widespread and favorable media coverage, motivate heavily funded runs for congressional office, and attract many millions in philanthropic donations and investments. And, with the surge of interest in GPT-4 and other AI programs, formerly niche longtermist opinions and worries about a future with advanced artificial intelligence have started to gain mainstream adherents, even among some socialists.
Of course, not all the treatment has been positive. The Sam Bankman-Fried scandal last year shone a spotlight on the darker side of the movement by allowing journalists to point to FTX and Alameda Research’s deep entanglement with longtermist charities. And its biggest talking points have been met with criticism and ridicule from many onlookers. But, for good or for ill, it is no longer the obscure intellectual brand of a few tech futurists.
Most media attention so far, however, has focused on the philosophy’s role in the tech industry and philanthropic world. This coverage omits a crucial facet: longtermism’s political interventions and ambitions, beyond those immediately touching on its charitable and scientific projects. Perhaps most strikingly, public documents reveal evidence that longtermists were key players in President Joe Biden’s choice last October to place heavy controls on semiconductor exports, a policy many commentators have been willing to ascribe to more conventional protectionist and anti-China elements in Washington. With this kind of political weight and determination, the movement deserves greater public scrutiny going forward.